Economic Analyses of Ahmadinejad's 2nd term
در مجموع شرایط بعد از انتخابات فضا را بدتر و وخیم تر کرده و اوضاع اقتصادی ایران بیش از پیش به سوی نابسامانی می رود
Iran's current immediate economic problems: inflation, excessive irresponsible imports,--> crippling the agriculture, excessive reliance on oil income, --> crippling production, --> unemployment, and lack of long-term plans and lack of efficient management. Economists say Ahmadinejad administration doesn't have efficient plans and management strategies for tackling these problems. Hassan Mansour, an economic professor in Britian, says 1) Ahmadinejad faces a severe economic crisis and it's future is unsure. 2) No strategies for the second term of his government have been issued. He also points out that production or productivity in production's decreased and a bad fiscal policy's been deployed, or perhaps a lack of one. The prediction of uncertainty in the oil market in the next 3 years further devastate these problems.
Mansour explains Ahmadinejad's short-term unemployment plans as merely means of distributing money, which don't count as strategies. And if jobs are created, they're temporary and have no place in the foundation of Iran's production. But the government will face a strong flee of capital, because national trust has decayed. Therefore the government will face tremendous difficulty in financing job creation and enhancing production. Large scale importing further paralyzes domestic production---> low production b/c of 1) lack of private investment (ppl's lack of trust) and 2) excessive imports. The govrnment tries to inject money to enhance it but against low production, it only heightens inflation! Hence the trend of Ahmadinejad's 2nd term will entail an increasing inflation, not decreasing one.
Opposition between the parliament (majlis-e shoro) and the government has increased over overcoming the BUDGET DEFICIT.
دولت احمدی نژاد از حربه کسر بودجه هم برای فشار بر مخالفانش استفاده می کند. هفته پیش اعلام شد که دولت بودجه دانشگاه ها را کم کرده است. بودجه مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام را به میزان ۴۰ درصد و بودجه مجلس خبرگان رهبری را به میزان ۵۸ درصد کاهش داده است. می دانیم که رئیس این دو نهاد آیت الله اکبر هاشمی رفسنجانی است
All of the economists inside and outside of Iran that are interviewed emphasize the fact that all econ problems are rooted in the troubled foundation (sakhtaar) of Iranian economy. And the key solution to that is to increase productivity of production. They also predict that oil price isn't ganna increase by next year, mentioning current crisis having had no influence on the price of oil b/c of efficiency of oil supply in the market. This is when Ahmadinejad's only winning token is oil boom in face of lack of legitimacy and political upheaval. Should oil price further decreases, political situation will curtail.
Source: http://www.radiofarda.com/content/f35_Eco_2nd_Gov_Ahmadinejad/1773006.html
Iran's current immediate economic problems: inflation, excessive irresponsible imports,--> crippling the agriculture, excessive reliance on oil income, --> crippling production, --> unemployment, and lack of long-term plans and lack of efficient management. Economists say Ahmadinejad administration doesn't have efficient plans and management strategies for tackling these problems. Hassan Mansour, an economic professor in Britian, says 1) Ahmadinejad faces a severe economic crisis and it's future is unsure. 2) No strategies for the second term of his government have been issued. He also points out that production or productivity in production's decreased and a bad fiscal policy's been deployed, or perhaps a lack of one. The prediction of uncertainty in the oil market in the next 3 years further devastate these problems.
Mansour explains Ahmadinejad's short-term unemployment plans as merely means of distributing money, which don't count as strategies. And if jobs are created, they're temporary and have no place in the foundation of Iran's production. But the government will face a strong flee of capital, because national trust has decayed. Therefore the government will face tremendous difficulty in financing job creation and enhancing production. Large scale importing further paralyzes domestic production---> low production b/c of 1) lack of private investment (ppl's lack of trust) and 2) excessive imports. The govrnment tries to inject money to enhance it but against low production, it only heightens inflation! Hence the trend of Ahmadinejad's 2nd term will entail an increasing inflation, not decreasing one.
Opposition between the parliament (majlis-e shoro) and the government has increased over overcoming the BUDGET DEFICIT.
دولت احمدی نژاد از حربه کسر بودجه هم برای فشار بر مخالفانش استفاده می کند. هفته پیش اعلام شد که دولت بودجه دانشگاه ها را کم کرده است. بودجه مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام را به میزان ۴۰ درصد و بودجه مجلس خبرگان رهبری را به میزان ۵۸ درصد کاهش داده است. می دانیم که رئیس این دو نهاد آیت الله اکبر هاشمی رفسنجانی است
All of the economists inside and outside of Iran that are interviewed emphasize the fact that all econ problems are rooted in the troubled foundation (sakhtaar) of Iranian economy. And the key solution to that is to increase productivity of production. They also predict that oil price isn't ganna increase by next year, mentioning current crisis having had no influence on the price of oil b/c of efficiency of oil supply in the market. This is when Ahmadinejad's only winning token is oil boom in face of lack of legitimacy and political upheaval. Should oil price further decreases, political situation will curtail.
Source: http://www.radiofarda.com/content/f35_Eco_2nd_Gov_Ahmadinejad/1773006.html
